Proving TikTok’s True Impact & Unlocking New Growth.
Client
Year
THE CHALLENGE
Prove the true incremental impact of Self’s marketing efforts — particularly on social media platforms like TikTok.
Determine whether their TikTok campaigns (web+mobile) were actually driving conversions — and how these campaigns compared to their overall CAC benchmarks.
With standard tracking and attribution falling short, the Self team lacked the data needed to confidently scale or optimize their TikTok efforts for ROI.
THE APPROACH
Self & TikTok turned to Twigeo for help.
We quickly identified that our GeoLift solution* was ideally suited to measure the true impact of their TikTok investment through geo-based experimentation.
* GeoLift by Twigeo – an AI-powered geo-based incrementality solution
HOW IT WORKS
Using our proprietary AI & machine learning algorithms, we split a market into:
Control (no changes)
and Treatment (turn media off/launch new media).
After analyzing Self’s historical conversion data, we designed a holdout test using synthetic control methodology. 60% of TikTok campaigns were paused and 40% had BAU + spend from Treatment.
THE RESULT
Conversions dropped by 6%*, with 99% statistical significance
This revealed that the TikTok campaigns:
Drove more conversions than reported in TikTok’s native interface
Outperformed internal expectations
delivered a lower CAC than many other channels
*This drop was identified by comparing the actual number of conversions to a synthetic counterfactual, which reliably shows what would have happened had the campaigns continued as usual.
Armed with these insights, Self was able to:
- Confidently increase their TikTok investment.
- Improved blended ROI.
- Unlock a new growth opportunity.
The results not only exceeded expectations — they also equipped Self with a scalable experimentation framework for future decisions.
Client Testimonial
“Understanding the true impact of our media is an ongoing challenge. Twigeo & TikTok made test design and execution seamless while answering all of our questions! Their synthetic control methodology is straightforward and gave us confidence in the impressive results.”
– Paul Kovalski, Growth Marketing Manager
Key Takeaways
Traditional attribution falls short in a privacy-first world.
GeoLift provides a privacy-safe, platform-agnostic way to measure true incremental impact with greater clarity.
It’s useful for any brand, not just TikTok or fintech.